World Bank warns of looming global food crisis amid fertilizer price spikes and El Niño risk

The World Bank’s June 2026 Food & Nutrition Security Update said that although total global food supplies remain broadly adequate, the system is increasingly fragile. Fertiliser prices rose 35 % in the first five months of 2026, and higher input costs together with supply‑chain disruptions are pressuring food prices. A 61‑87 % probability of an El Niño developing by mid‑2026 could cut rice output by 20‑50 % in South Asia, Southern Africa and parts of East Asia, deepening insecurity in low‑income and conflict‑affected regions. The report highlighted acute needs in East Africa, with 44‑47 million people requiring food assistance and famine confirmed in parts of Sudan and looming in Somalia.

Analysts warn that the crisis is amplified by broader geopolitical shocks, notably the war against Iran and the resulting blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has strained petro‑chemical supplies used in fertilisers, diesel, lubricants and plastics. These disruptions ripple through agriculture, manufacturing and transport, raising the risk of widespread food scarcity, price spikes and social unrest if supply chains do not recover.