World carbon budget may be exhausted by 2030 as temperatures near 1.5 °C limit

A study published on 11 June in the journal Earth System Science Data, authored by more than 70 scientists from 56 institutions in 17 countries, warns that the remaining global carbon budget – roughly 130 billion tonnes of CO₂ from the start of 2026 – could be used up by about 2030 if current emission rates continue. Global greenhouse‑gas emissions hit a record 56.8 Gt CO₂ in 2024, driving the planet’s temperature to an estimated 1.37 °C above pre‑industrial levels in 2025, edging close to the 1.5 °C target of the Paris Agreement.

The report also documents accelerating climate impacts: sea level has risen about 23 cm since 1901, with an average increase of 3.84 mm per year; ocean heatwaves have more than tripled since 1991, reaching 65 days in 2025; and the Earth’s energy imbalance – the gap between absorbed solar energy and emitted heat – has doubled, intensifying extreme heat on land and sea. A related analysis by the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service noted that May recorded the second‑highest global surface temperature (15.81 °C) and ocean temperature on record, while geopolitical tensions and funding cuts threaten key climate‑monitoring programs.

Scientists stress that rapid scaling of renewable energy and electrification could still limit warming, but immediate action is required to preserve the remaining carbon budget and avoid the most severe climate consequences.