World Cup 2026: Spain tops odds as Mexico faces South Africa in historic opening match

A mathematical model built by Steven Stern at Bond University simulated the 2026 FIFA World Cup one million times. The simulation gave Spain a 15.8% chance of winning, narrowly ahead of France (15.6%) and Argentina (15.3%). England was projected at 11%, with the traditional "group of nine" nations still dominating despite the new 48‑team format that slightly raises the odds of surprise runs.

The tournament’s opening ceremony will echo the 2010 debut, with Mexico playing South Africa at the renamed Estadio Ciudad de México on June 11. Javier Aguirre returns as Mexico’s head coach, Guillermo Ochoa is among the goalkeepers, and Shakira will perform the official anthem with Burna Boy, marking her fourth World‑Cup appearance.