Tunisia faces significant GDP risks from water scarcity, World Bank warns

The World Bank warns that severe water scarcity poses a significant threat to Tunisia’s economic stability. According to the latest Tunisia Economic Monitor, the country’s GDP could decrease by 6.4 percent by 2050 if current water management trends continue without structural intervention.

Agriculture is identified as the most vulnerable sector, employing 14 percent of the national workforce and up to half of rural workers. Projections suggest that water and climate stress could eliminate at least 30 percent of agricultural jobs by mid-century and significantly reduce agricultural output. The economic impact is expected to extend to other water-dependent industries, including tourism and agro-processing.

Tunisia currently possesses approximately 380 cubic meters of renewable freshwater per person annually, a level well below the international threshold for absolute water scarcity. While the economy saw growth of 2.7 percent in 2025 and 2.4 percent in the first half of 2026, future growth is projected to slow, averaging 2.1 percent between 2027 and 2028.