WTO reports global goods trade growing above trend driven by AI demand

The World Trade Organization’s Goods Trade Barometer, released on September 9, 2026, indicates that global merchandise trade is growing above trend with a composite score of 102.0. This represents an increase from the 101.7 reading recorded in June.

Growth is being driven largely by robust demand for electronic components linked to artificial intelligence investments, which reached an index of 104.9. Other sectors showing strength include export orders (103.5), international air freight (102.8), agricultural raw materials (102.6), and automotive products (101.5).

However, container shipping has fallen below the trend line to 99.6, marking the only component this year to drop below the 100-point baseline. This decline is attributed to supply-side disruptions rather than a lack of demand. Specifically, conflicts in the Middle East have caused congestion in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to carrier booking pauses, war-risk surcharges, and insurance withdrawals. These disruptions have impacted approximately 10 percent of the global container ship fleet.