XRP Shows Bullish Technical Breakout Amid Mixed On‑Chain Signals

Technical analysts reported that XRP broke a descending trendline on the 4‑hour chart, pushing the price above $1.10 and testing resistance near $1.12. The breakout follows a SuperTrend buy signal—the first since mid‑June—prompting expectations of a short‑term rally, with target levels cited at $1.18 and $1.29 if support around $1.09‑$1.10 holds.

On‑chain metrics indicate extreme stress: the 30‑day Market‑Value‑to‑Realized‑Value (MVRV) sits at –45% and the 365‑day MVRV at –47%, the lowest averages in roughly 12 years, suggesting many holders are at deep unrealised losses. The NVT ratio rose sharply to 194.71, while the taker buy‑sell ratio reached its highest level in 2026, reflecting strong aggressive buying in perpetual swap markets. At the same time, Coin Days Destroyed spiked, implying a wave of older coins being moved, and net wallet flows turned negative, hinting at profit‑taking. Top‑holder concentration slipped slightly from 87.98% to 87.87%.

Overall, the price bounce is supported by heightened buying pressure but tempered by signs of potential sell‑off and the historically low on‑chain health metrics, leaving the short‑term outlook fragile.