XRP escrow release, ETF inflows and technical signals shape market outlook

On July 1 Ripple unlocked exactly 1 billion XRP from its escrow account, a release worth roughly $1.04 billion at current prices. The tokens were transferred in three tranches (200 M, 300 M, 500 M) following the automated schedule set in 2017, and most of the amount is expected to be re‑locked within weeks, leaving net new supply of about 200–300 million XRP per month.

Despite a broad cryptocurrency downturn, spot XRP exchange‑traded funds have continued to attract inflows, led by the Bitwise XRP ETF, while Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs see outflows. Analysts note that XRP’s price remains near $1.05, with key technical zones highlighted: a critical support range of $0.65‑$0.70, a breach of the $1.30 level, and a record‑low monthly RSI below 40 that is now flattening. Some see the $1.65 macro gate as a pivotal resistance, while others project long‑term targets up to $18 if the token’s support holds, or even higher under a favorable outcome of the U.S. “Clarity Act” legislation.

Regulatory context includes the 2025 SEC settlement that clarified certain XRP sales, giving the token a clearer U.S. legal framework. Market commentary also references broader factors such as potential U.S. rate cuts, oil price trends, and Middle‑East normalization that could affect institutional demand for digital assets like XRP.