Zambia's kwacha under pressure ahead of August election as IMF reforms and copper outlook shape markets

Zambia’s kwacha slipped to about 18.95 per US dollar, while Ghana’s cedi fell to roughly 11.66 per dollar, as traders grew cautious amid rising corporate dollar demand and upcoming elections. In Zambia, the August 13, 2026 presidential and parliamentary vote is expected to weigh on the currency, with investors monitoring IMF programme disbursements and the country’s post‑default debt restructuring. Ghana’s cedi faces similar strain, though a pending $371 million IMF release may offer short‑term support.

Zambia exited a 38‑month IMF Extended Credit Facility in January 2026 after receiving $1.7 billion, and debt restructuring now covers about 94 % of its liabilities. Inflation dropped to 6.5 % in June, the lowest in eight years, and the IMF projects 2026 GDP growth of 4.3 % supported by high copper prices. The government aims to triple copper output, which accounts for roughly 70 % of export earnings. Fiscal plans for 2026 target a 27.4 % of GDP budget, funded by revenue, grants and borrowing, with a narrowing primary surplus. Investors view the election as a test of Zambia’s recovery and its ability to sustain growth under new IMF arrangements.