[REVISION HISTORY]

2026-2027 El Niño phenomenon intensification

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2026-08-18 09:26 UTC → 2026-08-18 09:44 UTC · added ~~removed~~

The 2026-2027 El Niño phenomenon is intensifying, with sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region ~~reaching +1.8°C,~~ approaching the “very strong” threshold of +2°C. In the Niño 1+2 region near Peru, anomalies have hit 3.3°C. This warming has led to a decline in chlorophyll-a concentrations in the central equatorial Pacific, threatening marine food webs. Scientists warn that the interaction between natural cycles and anthropogenic warming makes the global impact increasingly unpredictable, with the event potentially lasting until autumn 2027. Meteorological agencies report a significant ~~intensification, with~~ intensification. NOAA ~~raising~~ has raised the probability of a “very strong” event to 95% for the October-December 2026 ~~period.~~ period, with a median sea surface temperature anomaly forecast at +2.66°C. There is a 97% chance the phenomenon will persist until the spring of 2027. Some projections suggest a 69% chance that this could become the most intense event recorded since 1950. ~~In Peru, the ENFEN commission has warned of~~ Environmental risks are escalating. An analysis by Amazon Conservation highlights a ~~potential “extraordinary”~~ historical correlation between strong El Niño ~~Costero during the 2026-2027 summer, with a 41% probability, expected to bring higher-than-normal temperatures~~ events and ~~localized heavy rainfall to the northern coast. Recent data from the Climate Prediction Center indicates~~ subsequent wildfire crises, noting that ~~sea surface temperature anomalies in~~ the ~~eastern equatorial Pacific have already exceeded +2°C, while subsurface thermal anomalies have reached up to +10°C~~ 2023 event preceded record forest losses in ~~depth. NOAA now indicates an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño developing between October and December 2026, with a 97% chance the phenomenon will persist until the spring of 2027. In Italy,~~ 2024. Researchers warn the ~~phenomenon may contribute to warmer temperatures and persistent atmospheric conditions, with~~ upcoming cycle could trigger similar or more severe primary forest losses in the ~~Mediterranean noted as a particularly delicate region.~~ Amazon basin. Regional concerns ~~are escalating~~ persist across South America. In Peru, the ENFEN commission has warned of a potential “extraordinary” El Niño Costero. In Brazil, authorities report ~~effects are already being felt nationwide; the south and southeast face~~ intense rainfall and extreme ~~winds,~~ winds in the south and southeast, while the Amazon and northeast ~~experience drought and water scarcity.~~ face drought. In Bolivia, the climate crisis has already caused a 20% drop in milk production in the La Paz department. In Europe, concerns remain regarding temperature increases and persistent weather patterns.

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