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2026-2027 El Niño phenomenon intensification

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2026-09-24 21:13 UTC → 2026-09-24 23:23 UTC · added ~~removed~~

The 2026-2027 El Niño phenomenon is intensifying, with sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific reaching 2.5°C to 5°C above historical averages as of July 2026. Experts suggest a 69% probability that this cycle will be the most intense since 1950, with a greater than 90% chance of a “very strong” event occurring between late 2026 and early 2027. Some researchers have informally dubbed the powerful development the “Godzilla” phenomenon. By late September 2026, climatologists warned that the event, potentially amplified by a 1.5°C increase in global temperatures, could make 2027 one of the hottest years on record. Recent data suggests a 75% chance that 2027 will indeed become the hottest year on record due to the combined impact of this extreme El Niño and ongoing global warming. The phenomenon is expected to raise Pacific temperatures by 3.4 degrees, driving intense typhoons in the Pacific—including record-breaking storms like Hurricane Polo, which reached peak winds of 180 mph—and extreme droughts in Central America. Conversely, wind shear is preventing hurricane formation in the Atlantic. Regional impacts are diversifying as the event progresses. In ~~Peru,~~ Ecuador, the ~~combination of global El Niño and coastal El Niño~~ phenomenon is ~~expected to cause torrential rains and flooding~~ causing record rainfall on the coast while ~~exacerbating droughts~~ simultaneously creating drought conditions in the ~~Andes.~~ Amazon, which threatens hydroelectric power. In Argentina and Paraguay, warnings indicate that river levels, such as the Paraná, could double. Globally, the “super El Niño” poses severe risks to health and food security. A study from the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago warns the event could lead to approximately 451,000 deaths globally due to extreme heat. The Sahel region in Africa is projected to face 66,800 additional deaths, with Nigeria bearing nearly half of that burden. Other highly vulnerable regions include Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, India, and Brazil.

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