African economic growth and structural challenges

African economic outlooks show a mix of growth projections and structural vulnerabilities. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecasted a 4.5 percent growth rate for the continent this year, with a potential recovery to 5 percent by 2027. However, these prospects are tempered by a projected 12 percent decline in development assistance and risks such as energy supply disruptions and El Nino.

Regional data reveals varying trends. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the IMF projects the average annual growth rate will remain steady at 4.5 percent through 2027. While the regional outlook remains resilient, growth is uneven; resource-intensive economies show more stability than non-resource-intensive ones. Individual country forecasts vary significantly: Ethiopia and Rwanda are projected to see high growth of 9.2 percent and 9.4 percent respectively in 2025, while Nigeria is forecast at 4.0 percent. Sierra Leone is expected to grow by 4.8 percent in 2025, 4.0 percent in 2026, and 4.4 percent in 2027. Conversely, Lesotho’s growth is projected to slow to 0.8 percent by 2027, falling well below the regional average. New projections indicate Zimbabwe’s GDP is expected to reach $65.92 billion by 2026, making it the 14th largest economy in Africa.

Central Africa saw growth slow to 3.6 percent in 2025. While inflation in Central Africa decreased from 16.2 percent to 10.8 percent, high living costs and a widening fiscal deficit remain concerns. The IMF and the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) warn that risks remain tilted to the downside, including geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, climate vulnerability, high interest burdens, and global inflationary pressures. To mitigate shocks, the Fund recommends focusing on price stability, debt management, and the ability to transition from informal to formal employment.