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Alagoas gubernatorial and Senate election updates

Updated 11 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-10-02 20:34 UTC → 2026-10-03 22:52 UTC · added removed

The Alagoas gubernatorial election remains a highly competitive contest between Renan Filho (MDB) and JHC (PSDB). Recent polling data indicates a tightening race. A Datasensus poll conducted between September 22 and 24 shows Renan Filho reaching 50% of valid votes, potentially securing a first-round victory, while JHC holds 48.5%. This follows other recent surveys, such as a DataTrends poll showing a technical tie with Filho at 45% and JHC at 44%, and a Real Time Big Data poll placing Filho at 46% to JHC’s 43% in a first-round scenario. However, a more recent TDL survey of 1,200 voters conducted in late September presents a different trend, showing JHC leading the race with 53.3% of valid votes, followed by Renan Filho at 41.4%. New data from Real Time Big Data, collected between September 21 and 24, suggests a technical tie in a simulated first round, with Renan Filho at 47% and JHC at 44%. This margin falls within the two-percentage-point error margin. The poll also indicates a close second-round scenario, with Filho at 47% and JHC at 45%. This period of polling coincided with significant political activity, including a visit to Maceió by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to support Renan Filho. On the eve of the 2026 elections, a Quaest poll shows a technical tie between the two main candidates. Considering only valid votes, Renan Filho holds 50% of the intention to vote, while JHC follows with 49%. In a second-round scenario, the candidates appear tied with 44% each. In spontaneous research, Renan Filho leads with 32% compared to JHC's 30%. Regarding the Senate race, where two seats are contested, Arthur Lira leads when combining first and second choices at 43.6%, followed by Marina JHC. Recent polling updates indicate that Marina JHC (PSDB) has emerged as a frontrunner for a Senate seat, leading both Arthur Lira (PP) and Renan Calheiros (MDB). The competition between Lira and Calheiros remains a central focus as they vie for the remaining Senate vacancy.

Versions

  1. 2026-10-03 22:52 UTC Alagoas gubernatorial and Senate election updates
  2. 2026-10-02 20:34 UTC Alagoas gubernatorial and Senate election updates
  3. 2026-10-02 11:42 UTC Alagoas gubernatorial and Senate election updates
  4. 2026-09-28 06:42 UTC Alagoas gubernatorial election
  5. 2026-09-27 18:54 UTC Alagoas gubernatorial election
  6. 2026-09-27 03:35 UTC Alagoas gubernatorial election
  7. 2026-09-25 04:22 UTC Alagoas gubernatorial election
  8. 2026-09-24 17:41 UTC Alagoas gubernatorial election
  9. 2026-09-17 15:03 UTC Alagoas gubernatorial election
  10. 2026-09-17 00:49 UTC Alagoas gubernatorial election
  11. 2026-09-16 04:41 UTC Alagoas gubernatorial election
  12. 2026-09-06 22:02 UTC Alagoas gubernatorial election

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