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AMOC stability and global warming speed research

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2026-09-05 23:47 UTC → 2026-09-09 05:47 UTC · added ~~removed~~

Researchers at Utrecht University have published findings in ‘Nature Climate Change’ regarding the stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The study indicates that the speed of global warming and the rate of CO2 concentration growth are critical factors in determining whether this ocean current system collapses. Climate models used in the research suggest that the AMOC may be able to withstand significant warming if the temperature rise is gradual. For instance, if CO2 concentrations increase slowly at a rate of 0.5 ppm per year, the circulation could remain stable even with 5.5 degrees Celsius of warming. Conversely, rapid warming poses a much higher risk. If CO2 increases at rates of 2.5 or 5.0 ppm per year, the circulation could reach a tipping point and collapse at a threshold of approximately 2.0 degrees Celsius. New research from the University of Southampton, published in ‘Scientific Reports’, adds nuance to the potential consequences of such a collapse. The study suggests that a sudden AMOC collapse could cause regional cooling in certain areas for 15 to 20 years, though it notes this would not halt global warming, as temperatures would likely rise again after that period. The researchers emphasize that these changes would be gradual rather than instantaneous. Additionally, satellite observations covering 31 years show that the Gulf Stream intensified rapidly between 2014 and 2023 following a period of weakening. While this intensification can transport more heat toward higher latitudes—affecting storm patterns and temperatures in Western Europe and North America—NOAA warns that the strengthening of this specific segment does not necessarily indicate the entire AMOC system is strengthening.

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