[REVISION HISTORY]

Argentina 2026-27 grain outlook and crop shifts

Updated 8 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

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2026-09-05 04:55 UTC → 2026-09-14 15:03 UTC · added ~~removed~~

The 2025/26 Argentine grain season saw corn shipments reach 23 million tonnes in the first half of 2026, overtaking soybeans for the first time since 2021. While corn production was projected at a record 71.5 million tonnes, the outlook for the 2026/27 cycle suggests a shift in crop preferences. Projections from the Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario (BCR) indicate maize acreage may decrease by 7.3%, primarily in the north, with that area transitioning to soybean cultivation. As of ~~early September~~ mid-September 2026, the 2026/27 maize planting season has ~~commenced, with 1.5 percent~~ progressed to 5.5% of the projected 8.4 million hectares ~~already~~ sown, ~~primarily in north-central Santa Fe.~~ representing a weekly increase of 4 percentage points and placing the campaign 1.7 percentage points ahead of the previous year. Concurrently, the 2025/26 ~~cereal~~ corn harvest ~~has~~ is nearing completion, having reached ~~92.5 percent~~ 96.9% of the suitable ~~area, yielding an average of 77.8 qq/Ha. National maize production is projected at 64 million tons.~~ area. Soybean outlooks for 2026/27 focus on ~~efficiency rather than expansion.~~ efficiency. Technical analysis by NEOGEN identifies a 34 percent national productivity gap between current and potential ~~yields, suggesting growth must stem from~~ yields. Climate factors remain a critical variable; the AgroENSO platform, developed by CONICET and INTA, indicates that El Niño conditions are expected to persist, potentially impacting corn, soybean, and wheat yields. Farmers are advised to utilize improved ~~genetics~~ management and ~~management.~~ technology to mitigate this variability. Sunflower planting ~~has~~ previously reached 19.3 percent of its 3 million hectare target, though recent rains in Santa Fe and water excesses in Entre Ríos ~~have~~ necessitated replanting or caused delays. Wheat sowing for the 2026 cycle ~~has concluded, covering~~ concluded at 6.5 million ~~hectares. While poor soil conditions initially prevented area expansion, improved moisture reserves have raised expectations,~~ hectares, with 90.8% of the area reporting ‘adequate to optimal’ water conditions.

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