[REVISION HISTORY]

Austrian economic outlook revisions

2 recorded revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-09-17 07:18 UTC → 2026-09-28 11:01 UTC · added ~~removed~~

The Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) has updated its economic forecasts for Austria, adjusting expectations for GDP growth and inflation. Initially, the OeNB revised its 2026 GDP growth forecast downward to 0.5% due to lower-than-expected figures in the first half of the year, while lowering the 2026 inflation projection to 3.0%. The bank anticipated an economic recovery in subsequent years, with inflation expected to drop to 2.3% in 2027 and 2.2% in 2028. In a subsequent update, the bank maintained the 0.5% growth projection for 2026 but raised the 2027 growth forecast to 1.3% from 1.1%. This adjustment was attributed to positive signals such as stronger global trade and improved domestic manufacturing sentiment. The bank also projected a decline in the unemployment rate from 7.5% in 2026 to 7.1% by 2028, though it cautioned that high geopolitical risks and potential drought conditions remain factors. An interim economic forecast released in September 2026 reaffirmed these projections, noting that while regional conflicts in the Middle East and summer droughts persist, the outlook for the second half of 2026 has improved. The OeNB projects GDP growth of 0.5% for 2026, 1.3% for 2027, and 1.2% for 2028. This period of economic activity coincides with reports from Germany, where real manufacturing orders reached an all-time high in July 2026, driven largely by the vehicle construction sector. By late September 2026, the Austrian industrial sector showed signs of significant recovery. The Bank Austria Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 54.9 points in September, its highest level since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022. This uptick is driven by increased domestic and international orders, leading Bank Austria Chief Economist Stefan Bruckbauer to forecast a 1.5 percent increase in real industrial production for Austria in 2026.

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