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Bitcoin quantum computing security risks

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2026-10-15 02:26 UTC → 2026-10-17 14:43 UTC · added ~~removed~~

The Bitcoin network faces long-term security challenges due to the emergence of quantum computing. Research from Google Quantum AI indicates that technical hurdles for quantum attacks are decreasing, suggesting that a quantum computer could theoretically derive a private key from a public key in approximately nine minutes under idealized conditions. In response, industry players are formalizing mitigation strategies. Coinbase, which holds approximately 5% of the total Bitcoin supply, has issued a technical proposal urging developers to begin a multi-year planning process to protect the network. Emphasizing that the scale of migration requires long-term infrastructure preparation, Coinbase suggested specific designs such as BIP-360 and P2TRv2 to introduce flexible, quantum-resistant signature systems. The company also recommended using hybrid wallets—specifically a ‘1-of-2’ configuration—that support both existing signatures and future post-quantum authentication methods to ensure a smooth transition. Coinbase noted that the transition involves complex challenges beyond new algorithms, including managing transaction fees, network capacity, and wallet compatibility. They also suggested that the issue of dormant or lost Bitcoin, including potential Satoshi Nakamoto holdings, should be treated as a separate governance matter to avoid delaying broader security upgrades. Recent discussions hosted by Coinbase, Stanford, and Localhost Research have further explored these technical approaches. While no consensus has been reached on a specific method, experts have examined draft proposals like BIP 360, which suggests adding a Pay-to-Merkle-Root output to reduce exposure to certain quantum attacks, though this does not yet introduce a full post-quantum signature scheme. Currently, Bitcoin has no activated post-quantum migration, no published deadline, and no fixed migration fees. Despite these efforts, significant vulnerabilities remain. Lorenzo Valente, ARK Invest’s Director of Research for Digital Assets, noted that approximately 7.1 million BTC, or about 35 percent of the circulating supply, currently sits in addresses with exposed public keys vulnerable to Shor’s algorithm. ~~While some warn that AI advances could accelerate the timeline for breaking elliptic-curve cryptography, ARK’s research suggests the primary threat is roughly 10 to 20 years away.~~

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