Brazil electricity tariff and consumption trends

Projections indicate divergent energy trends in Brazil, specifically regarding the Northeast region. While national energy costs are expected to decrease by approximately 2% by 2027, the Northeast could see a 9.58% increase in electricity tariffs due to the expiration of temporary price containment measures and distribution costs. Conversely, the South and Southeast regions are forecasted to see reductions of 7.59% and 5.14%, respectively.

In response to energy dynamics, the National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel) has proposed a restructuring of the “white tariff” model. This new “right hour tariff” (tarifa hora certa) would implement time-of-day pricing for residential, rural, commercial, and industrial low-voltage consumers to encourage shifting usage to periods of lower demand. Under this plan, energy prices would be higher during peak hours, typically in the early evening, and lower during other periods, including weekends and holidays.

The proposed implementation would be gradual. Consumers using over 1,800 kWh/month would be included by April 2028, followed by those using over 1,000 kWh/month in 2029, and finally those consuming at least 500 kWh/month by April 2031. The proposal targets approximately 5.7 million low-voltage consumers. Low-income consumers under social discount programs, public lighting, and prepaid units are excluded from the mandatory transition, though those below the 500 kWh threshold may join voluntarily. The measure requires approval from Aneel's board of directors. Distributors would be required to provide informative statements for at least three billing cycles before the changes take effect.