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Brazilian electoral polling and voter sentiment

Updated 5 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

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2026-08-24 23:44 UTC → 2026-09-05 14:12 UTC · added ~~removed~~

Recent polling in Brazil reveals shifting voter sentiments and concerns ahead of upcoming elections. Early data from Indexa Pesquisas indicates rising voter indecision, with 10% of voters remaining undecided—a notable increase from 6% in 2022. Additionally, the Banco Master investigation appears to be influencing electorate intentions, as 38% of voters reported they would be less likely to support candidates with ties to those under investigation. Subsequent polling by Datafolha, conducted between August 18 and 20, 2026, highlights growing concerns regarding electoral integrity. The survey shows that 50% of voters believe foreign interference in the elections is possible. ~~Among those who see this possibility, 32% consider it a problem, while 18% do not. Conversely, 43% of respondents believe no such interference will occur, and 8% were unsure.~~ Perceptions of this risk vary by political ~~affiliation. Among~~ affiliation, with supporters of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 36% view foreign intervention as a problematic risk, while 44% believe no interference is possible. Among supporters of Flávio Bolsonaro, 25% see it as a problem, 31% see it as a possibility but not a problem, Silva and ~~38% believe no interference will occur.~~ Flávio Bolsonaro showing different levels of concern regarding potential intervention. Beyond ~~interference concerns, the~~ interference, Datafolha ~~survey indicates~~ indicated high civic engagement, with 56% of Brazilians stating they would vote even if the process were not ~~mandatory—the highest level recorded since 1989. This willingness is notably higher among men (59%) and older citizens (61%) than younger demographics.~~ mandatory. However, ~~the data also highlights~~ potential for high abstention remains among younger voters, as 49% of those aged 16 to 24 indicated they would not vote if participation were not compulsory. ~~Furthermore, 61%~~ A Quaest poll conducted between August 30 and September 1 adds that candidate participation in televised debates is becoming a factor for voters. Approximately 37% of ~~the population expresses at least~~ respondents expressed a ~~medium level~~ desire to vote less for candidates who miss these debates. This sentiment is most pronounced among independent voters, where 45% said they would be less likely to vote for absent candidates. Demographic analysis shows women (39%) and younger voters aged 16 to 34 (46%) are more likely to reject candidates who miss debates, while 63% of ~~interest in politics.~~ voters over 60 claim such absences do not affect their decision. Current voting intention data shows Lula at 37%, Flávio Bolsonaro at 31%, and Augusto Cury at 10%.

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