[REVISION HISTORY]

Canada-US travel decline shows signs of mid-2026 recovery

Updated 4 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-08-27 13:04 UTC → 2026-09-06 13:01 UTC · added ~~removed~~

The sharp contraction in Canadian outbound travel to the United States, triggered by President Donald Trump’s return to office in 2025, has shown signs of a slight recovery in mid-2026, though industry uncertainty persists. Data from 2025 confirmed a 23.5% drop in Canadian visitors, with 7.1 million fewer travellers and a C$3.3 billion decline in travel spending. This downturn was linked to heightened trade tensions, including a 50% tariff on various Canadian products and rhetoric suggesting Canada could become a “51st state.” By July 2026, Canadian-resident return trips from the U.S. rose to 2.3 million, a 10.2% increase compared to July 2025. While automobile return trips increased by 12.8%, air travel return trips saw a 1.4% decrease. The Gordie Howe International Bridge, opened July 27, 2026, recorded 18,900 automobile return trips in its first five days. ~~In Manitoba, U.S. visitors account for 7% of visitor spending despite representing only 3% of total visitors.~~ However, broader industry data suggests a complex recovery. Flight Centre Travel Group reported that U.S. leisure bookings from January through August 2026 were down 7.4% year-over-year, ~~and remained~~ remaining 39% below July 2024 levels. Conversely, business travel appears more resilient, with Corporate Traveller Canada reporting a 4.8% increase in cross-border air bookings through July. ~~In Montana, Kalispell saw a 16.1% increase in Canadian visitors in July 2026, though local officials fear~~ As trade ~~disputes~~ negotiations have failed, Canadian travelers are increasingly redirecting leisure spending toward Mexico, the Caribbean, Europe, Japan, and Southeast Asia. In response to an informal boycott, American tourism groups have launched promotional efforts, such as New York’s ‘NY Loves Canada’ campaign and Las Vegas hotels treating the Canadian dollar as equal to the U.S. dollar. Despite these efforts, some observers describe these campaigns as a ‘wasted effort’ given the current political ~~rhetoric may reverse this trend.~~ climate.

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