Chilean demographic crisis and declining fertility

Chile is experiencing a significant demographic transformation as its Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has fallen to a historic low of 0.99 children per woman. According to data from the National Institute of Statistics (INE), this decline places Chile among the three lowest fertility rates globally, following South Korea and Singapore.

Experts have noted that annual births have decreased from 250,000 to 150,000 over the last decade. This trend is expected to impact the labor force, pension financing, healthcare systems for an aging population, and enrollment in educational institutions and the armed forces. Societal factors contributing to this shift include economic stability, professional development, and changing life trajectories. Census data indicates that the percentage of women aged 15 to 49 with children has dropped from 65.6% in 2017 to 56.6% in 2024.

While the national rate is declining, regional variations exist. The Tarapacá region maintains the highest fertility rate in the country at 1.32 children per woman, driven by local demographic dynamics and migratory flows, though this remains below the replacement threshold of 2.1. Economic pressures, such as the rising average age of motherhood and the high cost of child-rearing, are cited as primary drivers. In response, the Chilean government is developing the ‘Chile Renace’ plan to address the crisis through improved housing access, childcare cost reductions, and increased labor flexibility for caregivers.