Chilean demographic decline and fertility crisis

Chile is experiencing a significant demographic decline as its fertility rate has fallen below one child per woman. Data from the National Statistics Institute (INE) indicates the Total Fertility Rate reached 0.99 in 2025, marking a 46.9% decrease in births compared to 1993.

This trend presents long-term structural risks to the nation. Projections suggest the population could decrease from 20 million in 2025 to fewer than 17 million by 2070, potentially leading to a 62% drop in school enrollment and a 27% contraction of the workforce. Economic pressures are expected to rise, with pension costs projected to increase by 134% and health expenditures by 35% due to an aging population. The OECD estimates fiscal pressure from aging could reach approximately 2.5% of GDP by 2065.

In response, the Kast government introduced ‘Plan Chile Renace’, which includes monthly child bonuses. However, critics argue that direct economic incentives may not address the underlying causes of the decline. Other proposed mitigation strategies include the Universal Nursery project, strengthening shared caregiving responsibilities, and improving access to sexual and reproductive health services.