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Climate change impact on infectious disease spread

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2026-09-09 19:39 UTC → 2026-09-21 17:34 UTC · added ~~removed~~

Research and health organizations are warning that climate change and rising temperatures are expanding the geographic range and risk of various infectious diseases. In Africa, a study published in Nature projects that malaria transmission will shift into cooler regions of southern and eastern Africa. By 2050, cases could increase by as much as 20% in coastal southern Africa and about 5% in the East African highlands of Kenya and Ethiopia, as well as in Angola, Zambia, and eastern South Africa. Conversely, the hottest regions, such as Nigeria, Burkina Faso, and Mali, may see a decline in cases as parts of the Sahel potentially become too hot for mosquitoes to survive. The World Health Organization reported 579,000 malaria deaths in Africa in 2024, three-quarters of which were children under five. Researchers note that limiting global warming to 2°C could prevent approximately five additional malaria cases per 1,000 children in southern Africa. In Europe, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) has identified increased risks for foodborne illnesses, vibriosis, mosquito-borne diseases, and tick-borne illnesses due to heatwaves. In France, modeling suggests the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) could inhabit nearly all of metropolitan France, excluding mountainous regions, by 2085. The mosquito has already expanded from a single department in 2004 to 81 departments by 2025, covering approximately 84% of the national territory. By 2026, health authorities confirmed an autochthonous case of chikungunya in Nogent-sur-Marne, near Paris, marking the first local transmission of the virus in the Île-de-France region for that year. In response, Santé publique France launched a sanitary investigation and mosquito control operations. Experts attribute this expansion and lengthened activity period to mild winters and climate change. Paris. In September 2026, residents in the Val-d'Oise department ~~of northern Île-de-France~~ reported an intense surge of tiger mosquitoes, describing the infestation as “unlivable.” By mid-September 2026, Santé publique France reported 13 local transmission cases of chikungunya and four cases of dengue in mainland France.

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