[REVISION HISTORY]

El Niño 2026 impacts – energy deficit and mitigation

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2026-09-10 17:13 UTC → 2026-09-17 02:51 UTC · added ~~removed~~

The energy and environmental crisis in Colombia continues to intensify as the El Niño phenomenon persists. To manage demand, the government has proposed a draft resolution where households reducing consumption below their average could receive discounts of up to 40%, while those exceeding their average could face surcharges of up to 30%. This complements the Energy and Gas Regulatory Commission (CREG) incentive program established via Resolution 101120 of 2026. Technical risks are escalating as reservoir levels decline. XM, the wholesale energy market administrator, warned that thermal power generation must exceed 95 GWh per day to mitigate critical drops in water reserves. New regulatory measures under Resolutions 101 120 and 101 126 of 2026 have established specific consumption targets. Users exceeding targets by more than 10% face surcharges of 30% for strata 1-3, 50% for strata 4-6, and 70% for commercial and industrial users. Senator Didier Lobo Chinchilla has criticized these measures, arguing they unfairly penalize Caribbean families who require cooling due to high temperatures. Utility disruptions are expanding. In Medellín, EPM announced nighttime water interruptions starting August 31 due to Piedras Blancas reservoir deficits, while Triple A will suspend service in Barranquilla on September 1 for maintenance. In Bogotá, Enel Colombia has scheduled electricity suspensions for late August in several localities, including Fontibón and Suba. Acolgen president Natalia Gutiérrez warned that without intervention, the El Niño phenomenon could lead to energy shortages or blackouts as late as the first half of 2027. Recent developments highlight growing structural vulnerabilities. Minister of Mines and Energy María Nohemí Arboleda warned that energy tariffs are set to rise as the country relies more on expensive thermal plants due to low water levels. New projections from XM indicate a 98% probability of very strong El Niño intensity during the final quarter of 2026.

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