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Cuban demographic decline and shifting migration laws

Updated 3 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

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2026-10-02 21:58 UTC → 2026-10-25 17:50 UTC · added removed

Cuba continues to face a rapid demographic transformation characterized by a shrinking and aging population. Data from the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI) shows the population fell from 11.2 million in 2016 to 9.7 approximately 9.43 million by the end of 2024, 2025. This decline is driven by negative natural growth where growth—where deaths significantly outnumber births. In addition to births—and a massive negative migratory balance. Between 2024 and 2025 alone, the country lost 313,414 inhabitants. The aging trend—with approximately 26% of trend has intensified, with the population aged 60 or older—new legislative changes are addressing older reaching 26.7% by the impact end of migration. 2025, making Cuba the oldest country in Latin America and the Caribbean. Projections suggest the population could decline to 8.38 million within 15 years, with the elderly comprising 36% of the population by 2040. This shift is accompanied by a rise in infant mortality, reaching 9.9 per 1,000 live births in 2025, which analysts link to shortages of medical supplies. On November 1, 2026, Cuba is scheduled to implement a new migration framework under Laws 171, 172, and 173. This framework replaces the previous ‘24-month rule’ with a system based on ‘effective migratory residence,’ determined by the number of days a citizen spends in Cuba annually. This legislation will govern governs how Cubans living abroad manage passports, property ownership, and investments. Internal migration patterns are also shifting, persist, with a notable movement from eastern provinces like Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Granma and Holguín toward western provinces. Havana remains the a primary destination, recording a net gain of over 21,000 people in 2025. Notably, and internal mobility is increasingly involving involves the elderly, who represent over 21% of migrants in Havana and Villa Clara.

Versions

  1. 2026-10-25 17:50 UTC Cuban demographic decline and shifting migration laws
  2. 2026-10-02 21:58 UTC Cuban demographic decline and shifting migration laws
  3. 2026-10-02 18:12 UTC Cuban demographic decline and aging population
  4. 2026-09-08 01:42 UTC Cuban demographic decline and aging population

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