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Demographic aging in São Paulo

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2026-09-30 22:07 UTC → 2026-10-01 22:55 UTC · added ~~removed~~

Data from Fundação Seade indicates that the state of São Paulo has reached a demographic milestone where the elderly population now exceeds the number of children and adolescents under the age of 15. In 2025, the aging index reached 101.0, representing 101 individuals aged 60 or older for every 100 young people. This transition is attributed to increased life expectancy and a significant decline in fertility rates, which have dropped to approximately 1.5 children per woman. Nationally, IBGE data shows the proportion of Brazilians aged 60 and older rose from 11.3% in 2012 to 16.6% in 2025. Projections from the Ministry of Health suggest the elderly population will reach 36.6 million by 2026 and could potentially hit 61.5 million within two decades. Notably, approximately 80% of this demographic relies exclusively on the Unified Health System (SUS). In response to these trends, Bill 3.779/2026 is under consideration in the Chamber of Deputies. The proposal seeks to amend the Statute of the Elderly to progressively increase the availability of geriatric specialists within the ~~Unified Health System (SUS).~~ SUS. While the number of geriatricians in Brazil grew from 662 in 2011 to 3,167 in ~~2024, experts~~ 2024—a 378.4% increase—experts note they represent only 0.7% of all medical specialists, averaging 1.49 per 100,000 inhabitants. Regional disparities persist in São Paulo, with the highest aging indices in the northwestern regions and the lowest in the south. As noted by spokesperson Lucia Yazaki, this shift “intensifies the demand for public policies regarding social security, healthcare, leisure, infrastructure, and elderly care.”

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