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Demographic decline in the Balkans

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2026-09-06 13:56 UTC → 2026-09-08 17:57 UTC · added ~~removed~~

Demographic decline and aging populations are affecting various regions in the Balkans. In the Serbian municipality of Blace, the average age of residents rose from 45.3 in 2011 to 48.2 in 2022, while the population of citizens aged 15 to 29 decreased by two percent. Local drivers for this youth migration include a lack of industrial employment, unstable agricultural markets, and insufficient social infrastructure. Broader trends are also observed in Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Montenegro has entered a stage of low birth rates, with the average number of children per woman dropping from 4.6 in the mid-20th century to approximately 1.7 or 1.8. Demographer Mileva Brajušković-Popović notes the country has entered a “post-transition demographic stage” where economic difficulties and high living costs prevent young people from achieving independence and making decisions regarding parenthood. In the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, population decline continues. As of mid-2026, the population was estimated at 2,133,059, representing a decrease of 5,062 people from the previous year. Since 2013, the region has seen a population decrease of approximately 3.9 percent. ~~While Sarajevo and West Herzegovina cantons saw slight growth, the Herzegovina-Neretva canton has seen its population decrease by 5.7 percent since 2013.~~ World Bank data highlights a wider regional shift, indicating that seven out of ten Balkan countries are expected to see population declines when comparing 1990 levels to 2025 projections. Bosnia and Herzegovina is projected to see a 29.4 percent drop by 2025, while Bulgaria is expected to see the largest absolute decrease, losing roughly 1.54 million residents. Montenegro, Slovenia, and Greece are noted as the only regional nations showing population growth. Recent data shows these shifts are impacting social infrastructure. In Albania, primary school enrollment fell by approximately 4% in 2024, with a 5.1% decrease in the public sector. North Macedonia is facing a broader crisis; its population has decreased from over 2 million in 1991 to approximately 1.82 million, accompanied by rapid aging.

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