Egypt sovereign credit rating status

Fitch Ratings affirmed Egypt’s sovereign credit rating at ‘B’ with a stable outlook, noting the nation’s economic growth potential and support from international, bilateral, and multilateral partners. Despite regional conflicts causing over $6 billion in hot money outflows and a 14% depreciation of the pound against the dollar, rapid foreign inflows helped the currency recover. International reserves increased by approximately $5.5 billion during the first eight months of 2026, reaching roughly $54.4 billion.

While the current account deficit is expected to widen to 5.1% of GDP in fiscal year 2026 due to energy import costs, Fitch anticipates it will decrease to below 3.5% by fiscal year 2028, supported by tourism and improved trade balances.

In October 2026, Moody's Investors Service upgraded Egypt's credit rating for both local and foreign currency to B3 from Caa1, maintaining a positive outlook. The upgrade was driven by improving fiscal indicators, declining government debt and interest burdens, and rising foreign exchange reserves, which reached approximately $57 billion by September 2026. Moody's highlighted that the transition to a flexible exchange rate system and tighter monetary policy enhanced the economy's ability to absorb external shocks. Furthermore, the primary surplus rose to 4.9% of GDP during the fiscal year ending June 2026, and government debt is projected to decrease to 81.8% of GDP by June 2026, down from 95.2% in June 2023. The agency expects fiscal discipline to continue following the conclusion of the current International Monetary Fund program in December 2026. Future improvements remain contingent upon potential divestments under the State Ownership Policy and a recovery in domestic energy production and maritime traffic.