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El Niño climate risks in Mozambique, Madagascar, and East-A

Updated 4 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

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2026-09-23 17:03 UTC → 2026-09-28 01:59 UTC · added removed

The El Niño phenomenon and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole are driving severe climate risks across Mozambique, Madagascar, and East Africa, with effects expected to persist until early 2027. In Mozambique, the country faces a dual threat: severe drought and water shortages in the central and southern regions, while the north faces risks of excessive rainfall and flooding. Regional forecasts from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) suggest a high probability The National Institute of below-average rainfall, increasing Meteorology (INAM) has specifically alerted Maputo province to moderate drought risks. risks in the Moamba and Magude districts between January and March 2027. To mitigate these impacts during the 2026/2027 rainy season, impacts, the government is implementing a preparation plan that includes establishing a hierarchy of water usage priorities. Essential uses, such as human consumption, health services, and critical food production, will be prioritized over lower-priority uses. Agricultural strategies involve distributing drought-tolerant seeds, promoting conservation agriculture, and securing the World Food Programme are monitoring water points for livestock to prevent animal mortality resources and forced sales. Authorities will also monitor river flows, reservoir levels, recommending the distribution of drought-resistant seeds and groundwater for early intervention. the rehabilitation of water boreholes. Madagascar is experiencing similar regional contrasts, with southern and western areas facing drought while the north and east anticipate heavy rainfall and flash floods. Extreme temperature anomalies also increase the risk of heatwaves and wildfires. Regional impacts extend to neighboring countries. Zimbabwe is bracing for a difficult agricultural season with below-normal rainfall predicted between October 2026 and March 2027. In Kenya, authorities are preparing for increased rainfall and potential flooding. intensifying. In Botswana, research by the Parliament of Botswana warns of significant economic and food security risks from an anticipated El Niño cycle between October 2026 and March 2027. Projections suggest a potential 43.5% yield loss in major cereals and livestock losses exceeding P1 billion due to heat stress and poor pasture regeneration. A projected 25% decline in rainfall could drive maize and wheat import dependency above 97%. In Angola, meteorological institutes forecast drought in the south and southeast, with conditions potentially becoming moderate-to-severe in provinces such as Moxico and Lunda Norte between January and March 2027. Conversely, excess rainfall is expected along the coast, affecting provinces including Luanda and Benguela. Zimbabwe remains braced for a difficult agricultural season, and Kenya is preparing for increased rainfall and potential flooding.

Versions

  1. 2026-09-28 01:59 UTC El Niño climate risks in Mozambique, Madagascar, and East-A
  2. 2026-09-23 17:03 UTC El Niño climate risks in Mozambique, Madagascar, and East-A
  3. 2026-09-21 08:54 UTC El Niño climate risks in Mozambique, Madagascar, and East-A
  4. 2026-09-09 05:57 UTC El Niño climate risks in Mozambique, Madagascar, and East-A
  5. 2026-09-08 18:54 UTC El Niño climate risks in Mozambique and Madagascar

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