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El Niño climate risks in Mozambique, Madagascar, and East-A

Updated 1 time since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

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2026-09-08 18:54 UTC → 2026-09-09 05:57 UTC · added ~~removed~~

El Niño climate risks in ~~Mozambique~~ Mozambique, Madagascar, and ~~Madagascar~~ East-A

The El Niño phenomenon and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole are driving severe climate risks across Mozambique and Madagascar, with effects expected to persist until early 2027. In Mozambique, the situation varies by region. The Memba District in Nampula Province faces a moderate drought risk, prompting the activation of Anticipatory Action ~~Plans and recommendations for drought-resistant seeds and water system maintenance.~~ Plans. More broadly, the government has identified 52 districts in the central and southern regions ~~are threatened by~~ susceptible to water scarcity and rainfall deficits that could exacerbate ~~existing~~ food insecurity affecting 3.5 million people. ~~Meanwhile,~~ Conversely, northern Mozambique faces risks of excessive precipitation and flooding. Madagascar is experiencing similar regional contrasts. The southern and western areas face drought and water deficits, while the north and east anticipate heavy rainfall and flash floods. The island also faces extreme temperature anomalies, increasing the risk of heatwaves and wildfires in protected forests. Regional impacts are extending to neighboring countries. Zimbabwe is bracing for a difficult agricultural season, with forecasts predicting below-normal rainfall and warmer temperatures between October 2026 and March 2027. In Kenya, authorities are preparing for increased rainfall and potential flooding in eastern regions, with the Ministry of Health activating a contingency plan to mitigate health risks such as water-borne diseases.

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