El Niño impact on Ecuador and Peru marine ecosystems

In July 2026, scientists warned of severe marine deoxygenation in Ecuador driven by an intensifying El Niño event. Projections indicated surface-water temperature rises of up to 3.6 °C, which threatened to suppress nutrient-rich upwelling and reduce phytoplankton levels, particularly around the Galápagos. Researcher María José Marín Jarrín of ESPOL noted a “90 % chance” that the event would be among the strongest on record.

By late August, the phenomenon began significantly disrupting the Ecuadorian fishing industry. Anomalous ocean warming, with temperatures reaching 28 degrees Celsius in some areas, caused commercial species such as albacore, marlin, and dorado to migrate to deeper or cooler waters. Artisanal fishermen reported increased operational costs and risks, as vessels in Santa Elena were forced to travel up to 150 miles offshore. Additionally, an influx of the ‘jaiba mora’ crustacean has complicated harvests by clogging nets. The industrial sector has also faced pressure, with over 600 vessels reporting lower catches. Projections suggest tuna production could fall to 360,000 tons in 2026, down from 450,000 tons in 2025.

By late August 2026, the situation expanded to include rising sea levels in Ecuador, which have increased by up to 40 centimeters, heightening risks of coastal erosion, flooding, and infrastructure damage. The aquaculture sector has also entered an alert phase, with the National Aquaculture Chamber proposing strict environmental monitoring to protect shrimp production from temperature and oxygen fluctuations.

In Peru, meteorologists warn of an extraordinary event that could peak late in 2026, with thermal anomalies potentially exceeding those of the 1997-1998 period. Northern Peru faces risks of intense rainfall and floods, while southern regions face potential droughts.