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EU ageing and long-term population decline

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2026-08-31 22:54 UTC → 2026-09-03 07:55 UTC · added ~~removed~~

Eurostat’s 1 January 2025 estimate puts the EU population at 451 million, with the median age at 44.9 years. The population is projected to peak at roughly 453 million around 2029 before a long-term decline to about 399 million by 2100. This decline is driven by negative natural change, with 21 EU member states recording more deaths than births as of 2026. Recent data indicates the EU fertility rate is approximately 1.34 to 1.4 children per woman, significantly below the 2.1 replacement level. Migration remains a critical factor for stability; without it, the population decline could be 130 million larger by 2100. Demographic shifts are placing immense pressure on social systems, with the share of residents over 65 expected to reach one-third by 2050. To ensure the sustainability of pension funds, many nations are raising statutory retirement ages. OECD projections indicate that by 2060, Denmark could see retirement ages reach 74, while Italy and Estonia may reach 71. Other nations, including the Netherlands, Sweden, and Cyprus, are projected to hit 70 by 2060. In ~~the EU,~~ Slovakia, the ~~average~~ modeled retirement age for ~~those entering the~~ new workforce ~~in 2022~~ entrants is ~~expected to reach~~ approximately ~~66.7 years for men and 66.4 years for women.~~ 69. In the Czech Republic, experts emphasize that relying solely on state funds may be insufficient due to inflation, necessitating private savings. Portugal is also facing a sustainability crisis; expert reports suggest pension replacement rates could drop from 67% today to just 37% by 2050. While EU officials have urged Portugal to adopt occupational pension models similar to those in Denmark or the Netherlands, the Portuguese Cabinet has stated such reforms are ‘off the table’ during the current legislative term. Regional disparities remain severe. An analysis by the Centre Eastern Studies (OSW) highlights a demographic crisis in post-communist Europe since 1990. Out of 19 countries between Estonia and Bulgaria, only the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Montenegro have seen marginal population increases. Conversely, Ukraine and Moldova have lost over 40% of their populations, while Latvia, Bosnia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, and Albania have seen declines of approximately 30%. Analyst Konrad Popławski describes this as a ‘blood tax’ paid for freedom, where economic shifts drove young populations West.

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