[REVISION HISTORY]

Flooding risks and humanitarian impacts in Somalia

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2026-10-05 15:46 UTC → 2026-10-10 06:16 UTC · added ~~removed~~

The Somali Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA) initially issued warnings that 29 districts across 14 regions were at high risk of riverine and flash flooding during the 2026 Deyr rainy season. This risk was attributed to heavy rainfall in Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands, potentially driven by Super El Niño conditions. Following these warnings, heavy rainfall in Mogadishu triggered widespread flash flooding that paralyzed public transport and disrupted essential services. The flooding impacted the Ariif Health Centre, an International Rescue Committee (IRC)-supported facility, with teams assessing the damage. Forecasters maintain a high probability of above-normal rainfall through December, with some areas potentially receiving over 400 millimeters of rain. Authorities have warned that if the Juba and Shabelle rivers break their banks, significant devastation could occur in various towns and villages. As the El Niño threat persists, the humanitarian situation is expected to worsen. Aid worker Sarah Easter has warned that flooding starting in October could exacerbate existing crises driven by drought, conflict, and economic hardship. Declining international aid has already forced organizations like CARE to close 50 health stations across the country. Meanwhile, displaced families in camps such as those in Dhahar face extreme difficulty securing food and water, with many having already been forced to move multiple times due to violence from armed groups. By early October, the situation escalated as the Shabelle River breached its banks at 366 critical locations. SoDMA Commissioner Mohamud Moallim Abdulle noted that the danger has been exacerbated by nearly 40 years of neglect, specifically a lack of consistent dredging and sediment removal. Furthermore, insecurity in areas influenced by al-Shabab has hampered maintenance and prevention efforts along the river. Meteorologists warn that continued heavy rainfall could displace millions, destroy infrastructure, and increase the threat of waterborne diseases in riverine communities.

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