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Global agricultural commodity price volatility

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2026-10-20 16:19 UTC → 2026-10-21 01:33 UTC · added ~~removed~~

In late September 2026, agricultural commodity prices began rising, with the agricultural products index increasing by 3.98% monthly. This trend was driven by energy price increases and climate risks, specifically the high probability of a strong El Niño episode during the 2026-2027 seasons. While improved production prospects for some crops offered some relief, uncertainties regarding rainfall in Asia and demand for sugar supported upward price pressure. By mid-October, projections indicated that global food inflation would accelerate and persist through 2027. The FAO Food Price Index reached 136 points in September, its highest level since November 2022. Supply shocks intensified, with wheat prices rising over 30% in 2026 and rice prices in major Asian exporting nations increasing by 10% to 13%. In Indonesia, rice prices reached record highs, while in India, sugar prices hit an all-time high due to a weak monsoon. In Egypt, the cost of non-subsidized bread rose by ~~25%.~~ 25%, and in the United Arab Emirates, cooking oil prices increased by nearly 40%. Geopolitical factors further exacerbated the situation, as attacks on Black Sea grain infrastructure and insecurity in the Red Sea disrupted shipping routes, increasing freight costs by approximately 50% on certain routes. Additionally, conflicts involving the US, Israel, and Iran impacted fuel and fertilizer costs via the Strait of Hormuz. The World Bank noted that food inflation outpaced headline inflation in 22% of 150 analyzed countries during the September quarter, posing severe risks to low- and middle-income households across Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa.

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