[REVISION HISTORY]

Global central bank rate decisions

Updated 4 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-07-28 14:50 UTC → 2026-07-28 16:11 UTC · added ~~removed~~

Mid‑July markets focused on the European Central Bank’s expected hold of its main refinancing rate at 2.40 % and the Fed’s July 29 policy meeting, with analysts tracking spill‑over effects on emerging markets such as Brazil and European economies like Portugal. In July 2026 Brazil’s central bank kept the Selic benchmark at 14 % through year‑end, projecting a decline to 12 % by late 2027 and noting a R$200 billion fiscal stimulus. A Boletim Focus released on 27 July showed the median market forecast for Brazil’s 2026 IPCA inflation trimmed to 5.12 % – down from 5.15 % a week earlier and 5.33 % a month earlier – while forecasts for 2027 and 2028 were held at 4.22 % and 3.80 % respectively. The report kept 2026 Selic expectations at 14 % and signaled at least one cut before year‑end, with projections of 12 % in 2027 and 10.5 % in 2028. Growth outlook remained steady at 1.99 % for 2026, 1.60 % for 2027 and 2.0 % for 2028. Exchange‑rate projections stay near R$5.20 per US $, rising modestly to R$5.28‑5.30 by 2028. The current Selic rate sits at 14.25 % after the June 17 Copom decision, and the next Copom meeting is scheduled for 4–5 August 2026. New data released on 27 July showed Brazil’s June exports reached a record US$ 36.4 billion, cutting the current‑account deficit to US$ 2.3 billion and expanding the trade surplus to US$ 8.8 billion. Foreign‑direct investment inflows totaled US$ 9.1 billion in June, and international reserves stood at US$ 367.6 billion. The Boletim Focus reiterated the 5.12 % inflation outlook and a 14 % Selic rate forecast for the end of 2026, with the dollar projected to finish the year at R$5.20.

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