[REVISION HISTORY]

Global cocoa supply and price fluctuations

Updated 1 time since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-10-16 20:03 UTC → 2026-10-20 20:14 UTC · added ~~removed~~

The global cocoa market has experienced shifts in supply and pricing driven by regional production changes. Initially, Brazil reported a 25.3% increase in cocoa bean receipts for the 2025/26 harvest, reaching 226,497 tons due to favorable weather and improved management. During this period, global supply risks were noted, with a slim projected surplus of 25,000 tons and concerns that El Niño could tighten supply, particularly as heavy rains challenged production in the Ivory Coast. Subsequently, cocoa prices in New York fell by 3.2% to $5,645 per ton, driven by a significant supply surge from Ecuador. Ecuador’s monthly exports rose to 102,000 tons in September, contributing to a total production of 650,000 tons for the cycle ending that month. More recently, market trends have reversed as cocoa prices rose in New York following reports of a significant decline in deliveries from the Ivory Coast. For the 2026/27 season, port deliveries in the Ivory Coast fell by 41%, totaling 78,212 tons compared to 133,209 tons during the same period last year. Analysts suggest that the potential intensification of El Niño could lead to significant price volatility, with cocoa potentially benefiting from these supply constraints.

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