[REVISION HISTORY]

Global coffee commodity price fluctuations

Updated 2 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-10-06 20:02 UTC → 2026-10-09 21:44 UTC · added ~~removed~~

Coffee futures in New York initially saw a rebound, with December contracts rising 1.18% to $2.7860 per pound. This recovery followed a three-month low and was driven by technical buying and a weaker US dollar. Market sentiment was shaped by a tension between a projected global surplus—with the International Coffee Organization estimating a record harvest of 183.6 million bags—and historically low certified stocks at ICE. By late September, Arabica prices in New York experienced fluctuations and a moderate decline of approximately 0.5% due to profit-taking. While New York prices dipped, Arabica prices in the Brazilian market showed a slight increase, with 60 kg bags trading at R$ 1,577.42 in São Paulo. Meanwhile, Robusta coffee prices fell by 1.32%. Traders continue to monitor Brazilian supply and weather conditions impacting the 2027 crop. By October 2026, Arabica coffee futures experienced a significant surge, with December 2026 contracts surpassing the 300 cents per pound threshold. Prices for upcoming delivery months, such as March and May 2027, also trended upward by approximately 3.7%. Analysts attribute this price spike to the appreciation of the Brazilian Real against the US Dollar, which has reduced incentives for Brazilian exporters to sell internationally. Market volatility is further driven by low certified Arabica stocks and weather conditions in Brazil and Vietnam. In London, Robusta coffee also traded higher, with the market remaining volatile due to fund short positions and coverage movements. On October 9, 2026, New York December 2026 contracts rose 0.3% to 2.8980 cents per pound. While the Brazilian real's appreciation continues to support prices, increased supply from Brazil is limiting major gains. Brazilian coffee exports reached a 20-month high in September, with 3,930,013 sixty-kilogram bags shipped. Although daily export volumes rose 20.4% compared to September 2025, the average price per bag fell 9.8% to US$ 329.21.

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