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Global commodity market supply and price volatility

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2026-09-16 05:48 UTC → 2026-09-18 08:44 UTC · added ~~removed~~

Global commodity markets are entering a period of significant price surges and supply shortages, described as a “super-squeeze”. This trend is driven by a combination of geopolitical conflicts, weather patterns, and rising demand from sectors such as AI infrastructure, electrification, and defense spending. Copper prices have reached all-time highs, exceeding $14,700 per ton, as metal supplies shift from Europe and China toward the United States. While lithium prices in China have declined due to increased stock estimates, overall commodity indices have reached 14-year highs. The situation is further complicated by a maritime crisis involving simultaneous disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Black Sea. In the Strait of Hormuz, commercial traffic has dropped approximately 90% below prewar levels. In the Red Sea, Houthi forces have declared a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabian ports, forcing many vessels to bypass the Suez Canal for the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope, which adds 10 to 14 days to transit times. Recent analysis indicates the global economy is now facing four simultaneous shocks, driving a “commodity spiral” and significant inflationary pressure. Ongoing conflicts in Iran and Ukraine are convulsing interlinked petroleum, gas, and grain markets. The Bloomberg commodity index has risen 48 per cent this year, with costs spreading from energy to industrial metals and grains. Shipping costs have seen unprecedented increases, with the daily cost of a giant VLCC oil tanker reaching $1 million. Consequently, Brent crude prices have reached $108, and futures markets are no longer pricing in a quick return to normalcy, with Brent futures remaining high through the spring of 2027.

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