Global dementia incidence projections and risk factors

A study published in JAMA Neurology by the International Consortium for Memory Cohort Studies (COSMIC) projects that annual new dementia cases worldwide will more than double by 2050, rising from 11.4 million in 2023 to 24.7 million. Researchers identified a global age- and sex-standardized incidence rate of 9.7 new cases per 1,000 person-years, noting that women (10.6 per 1,000) face a higher incidence than men (8.6 per 1,000). Economic disparities were also evident, with low- and middle-income countries reporting 13.6 cases per 1,000 person-years compared to 8.3 in high-income nations.

Subsequent research has expanded on these trends by identifying a significant link between epilepsy and an increased risk of early-onset dementia before age 65. An international study of approximately 512,000 participants in France and Sweden suggests that individuals diagnosed with epilepsy, particularly during middle adulthood, face higher risks of cognitive decline.

Further analysis by an international research group, including specialists from the University of New South Wales, has expanded the scope of these global health projections. While confirming that annual dementia cases could reach 24.7 million by 2050 and the total number of people living with the condition could reach nearly 150 million, researchers also highlighted a surge in osteoarthritis. Projections suggest the number of individuals affected by osteoarthritis will approach one billion by 2050. Scientists emphasize that immediate action is required to prepare healthcare systems for these growing burdens, which are largely driven by an aging population.