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Global fertilizer market price and supply fluctuations

Updated 2 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

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2026-09-02 14:54 UTC → 2026-09-10 13:30 UTC · added ~~removed~~

The global fertilizer market continues to face volatility driven by geopolitical instability and supply constraints. While urea prices previously stabilized due to Chinese export quotas, recent trends show renewed upward pressure. In Brazil, urea and ammonium sulfate prices rose by approximately US$ 80 to US$ 90 per ton, reaching levels between US$ 480 and US$ 500 per ton, fueled by Middle Eastern supply constraints and Indian demand. Despite these price increases, nitrogenous fertilizer imports to Brazil declined between January and August, with urea imports falling by 25% and ammonium nitrate by 33% compared to the previous year. Analysts suggest that while current exchange rates may favor buyers, Brazil may need to accelerate purchases to replenish stocks for upcoming corn crops. Broader market disruptions are intensifying. Urea prices recently rose 4.65% to $428.00/T, a reversal linked to constrained shipping capacity in the Strait of Hormuz. Sulfur prices remain up over 232% year-over-year, influenced by a Russian export ban through late 2026. Structural disruptions are expected to create sourcing issues into 2027. Conflict has impacted approximately 31 ammonia plants in the Middle East, while 49 plants across India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh have faced curtailments due to feedstock shortages. Additionally, at least 20 Russian plants have been damaged by drone attacks. In response to sustained costs, some farmers have shifted toward precision nutrient management, reducing phosphate and potassium application levels by 10% to 15%. Recent developments indicate signs of relief in some sectors, though supply remains restricted. Sulfur prices at Brazilian ports recently fell by approximately 10%, or over US$ 100 per ton, though prices in Brazil remain above US$ 1,000 per ton—roughly 230% higher than the previous year. This dip follows rumors of resumed exports from Kazakhstan and potentially Russia.

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