Global government bond yield increases

Global government bond yields are experiencing a significant surge, signaling a potential end to the era of ultra-cheap money. In the United States, 30-year Treasury yields have reached approximately 5.25% to 5.26%, their highest levels since 2001.

In Europe, yields have reached multi-year highs, with France’s 30-year government bond yield approaching 4.85% and Germany’s 30-year Bund yields reaching nearly 3.73%, the highest since 2011. In Japan, the benchmark 10-year yield has climbed to approximately 2.90–2.93%, a level not seen since 1996, driven by the Bank of Japan’s pivot away from ultra-loose monetary policy and rising producer price inflation.

Several factors are contributing to this trend, including persistent inflation expectations, ballooning government debt, and massive capital demands for AI infrastructure. Geopolitical instability, such as the stalling of US-Iran peace negotiations, has also contributed to market pressures by driving Brent crude oil prices toward $90 per barrel. Investors are increasingly demanding higher compensation to hold long-term debt, raising concerns regarding fiscal outlooks and rising borrowing costs for corporations and homebuyers.