[REVISION HISTORY]

Global liquefied natural gas market trends

2 recorded revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-10-27 04:48 UTC → 2026-10-27 12:38 UTC · added ~~removed~~

The liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is experiencing significant shifts driven by geopolitical instability and long-term infrastructure expansion. Conflict in the Middle East, specifically Iranian missile strikes on a Qatari LNG hub and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, has impacted up to 20 per cent of global LNG supply. This has caused prices to more than double compared to pre-war levels. Consequently, the Australian LNG industry expects a revenue surge of $23 billion, with total revenue potentially reaching $70 billion this financial year. Major operators such as Woodside Energy, Santos, and Shell are seeing improved financial outlooks as gas-dependent nations in Europe and Asia seek replacement cargoes. Volatility remains high as Rystad Energy projects global LNG portfolio costs will rise to at least US$256.3 billion in 2026, a US$39 billion increase over pre-conflict ~~estimates.~~ estimates of US$217.8 billion. Modeling suggests supplies from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates could be unavailable from March 2025 through the end of 2026 due to escalating tensions. Despite these rising costs, global importers are projected to purchase 60.7 million tonnes less LNG in 2026. Europe is expected to be heavily impacted, with its LNG bill projected to increase by at least US$12 billion (18%) despite ~~declining demand.~~ a projected demand decline of 24 million tonnes, largely due to a high reliance on the spot market. Looking toward 2030, global LNG export capacity is projected to grow by 50%, marking the largest increase in history. Shell’s modeling scenarios—‘Surge’, ‘Archipelagos’, and ‘Horizon’—all suggest significant near-term growth, with volumes potentially reaching 550 million tonnes per year by the end of the ~~decade. While this expansion may exert downward pressure on benchmark prices, the shipping sector remains sensitive to regional demand. Strong European demand may cap shipping costs~~ decade, fueled by ongoing projects in the ~~Atlantic basin, though a resurgence in Asian demand could constrain vessel availability~~ United States and ~~increase freight costs.~~ Qatar.

Versions

Select a version to see what changed compared to the one before it.