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Global steel market volatility and regional shifts

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2026-09-12 04:02 UTC → 2026-09-28 23:46 UTC · added ~~removed~~

Global steel market stability remains precarious due to geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, rising energy costs, and declining Chinese real estate investment. While China’s domestic demand is affected by real estate trends, other regions like Vietnam are seeing increased crude steel production. In the United States and Europe, hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices rose by approximately 3 per cent month-on-month in August. In the US, a divergence persists between rising HRC prices driven by protective tariffs and declining scrap prices due to oversupply concerns. ~~Meanwhile, China’s export HRC~~ However, recent reports indicate US steel production is recovering, with buyers expecting further price increases due to tight capacity and ongoing mill maintenance. While imports remain attractive to some, they are often limited by quotas, long lead times, and quality concerns. In Europe, domestic coil prices ~~remained largely stable.~~ have seen a slight recovery, supported by higher production costs and reduced import availability resulting from new quota systems and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Supply is tightening due to technical issues and production cuts at major mills, including ArcelorMittal in Germany, Arvedi in Italy, and Acciaierie d’Italia following a court ruling. India’s steel sector continues to show strong momentum. ~~Following reports of increased sales from SAIL and record re-bar production from Steel Exchange India Limited,~~ August data shows a significant price ~~recovery. Indian~~ recovery, with rebar prices ~~surged~~ surging nearly 10 per cent month-on-month and 12 per cent year-on-year, driven by healthy demand, lower inventories, and supply tightness from planned maintenance ~~shutdowns at integrated plants.~~ shutdowns. Indian HRC prices also increased by about 2 per cent month-on-month. Input cost trends remain mixed; while Australian iron ore prices declined by about 2 per cent month-on-month, coal prices have risen. In Vietnam, VinMetal is pursuing environmental permits for a $3.2 billion steel complex in Ha Tinh, intended to import roughly 950,000 tonnes of scrap steel annually. Additionally, China Steel Corporation has announced price increases for the fourth quarter, citing high metallurgical coal costs and supply constraints.

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