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North Carolina 2026 Senate race

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2026-09-25 01:44 UTC → 2026-09-28 17:31 UTC · added ~~removed~~

The 2026 North Carolina Senate race to replace retiring Republican Thom Tillis remains a high-stakes contest between Democrat Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley. Recent polling continues to show Cooper in the lead, with margins ranging from 5 to 11 percentage points across various university and data group polls. A recent poll from High Point University and YouGov shows Cooper leading Whatley 50% to 42%. New data from an AARP survey indicates Cooper’s lead has reached 11 percentage points, with 53% to 42% among likely voters. This ~~contest~~ advantage is ~~viewed as a significant battleground~~ mirrored in ~~the national effort to determine control~~ prediction markets, where Cooper is trading at 94.5% on Kalshi and 96% on Polymarket. While Cooper maintains strength among younger voters, Whatley holds a six-point advantage among those aged 50 and older. Other surveys, including one from Elon University, also place Cooper ahead. Despite Cooper’s polling advantage, a Carolina Journal survey suggests widespread bipartisan support for fiscal restraints. Approximately 66.9% of likely voters support a constitutional amendment to cap the ~~Senate.~~ state income tax rate at 3.5%, and 65.6% favor limits on local property tax increases. As ~~the~~ campaigns intensify, candidates have pivoted toward economic and ideological critiques. Cooper has launched a “Make Stuff Cost Less” tour to focus on the rising cost of living, specifically targeting housing and utility affordability in Charlotte. ~~He has argued that federal policies, including tariffs, exacerbate these burdens.~~ Whatley has countered by blaming Democratic policies for economic difficulties while attempting to shift the focus toward crime and cultural issues. Republican efforts have increasingly focused on law and ~~order. During a rally in Gastonia,~~ order, with Donald Trump ~~supported~~ supporting Whatley by accusing Cooper of being a “murderer-protector” regarding the release of criminals. Trump specifically cited the case of Decarlos Brown Jr., though the North Carolina Department of Adult Correction stated Brown served his full minimum sentence. Trump also made a controversial remark about withholding FEMA disaster relief if Whatley loses, though he added he was “only kidding.” Additionally, the NRSC and other Republican organizations have leveraged the criminal case of Esteban Vasallo Corteguera to criticize Cooper’s immigration policies. Cooper has defended his record, stating that authorities already have the power to prosecute serious crimes regardless of immigration status. Recent reports also highlighted a past defamation issue from Cooper’s first statewide campaign.

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