[REVISION HISTORY]

Indonesian economic indicators and industrial gas crisis

Updated 8 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-10-25 08:05 UTC → 2026-10-25 22:28 UTC · added ~~removed~~

Bank Indonesia reported that retail sales grew by 1.3% year-on-year in August 2026, with the Real Sales Index reaching 226.5. This growth was primarily driven by demand for food, beverages, tobacco, and motor vehicle fuel, supported by the Indonesian Independence Day period. Despite this increase, the central bank warned of a potential monthly contraction of 2.3% in September 2026. While annual growth is projected to remain at 1.4%, officials anticipate a slowdown in certain commodity groups. Additionally, Bank Indonesia Governor Destry Damayanti emphasized the importance of maintaining central bank independence while strengthening synergy with the government to ensure price stability and protect purchasing power. By mid-October 2026, the industrial gas crisis intensified. The Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) urged the government to address supply availability and price affordability, suggesting that export volumes be redirected to meet domestic needs. New data reveals that the Certain Natural Gas Price (HGBT) policy is being undermined by physical supply constraints. In West Java, gas distribution has been restricted since mid-September 2026, with PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk reportedly limiting deliveries to approximately 78 percent of contract volumes. The Forum Industri Pengguna Gas Bumi (FIPGB) noted that only 27.5 percent of allocated gas is being supplied at the subsidized HGBT rate of 7 USD per MMBTU, forcing companies to use more expensive regasified LNG at roughly 20 USD per MMBTU. These disruptions have raised concerns regarding potential layoffs for approximately 1,500 workers. In response to these shortages, Indonesia has officially begun reducing natural gas exports to Singapore to prioritize domestic energy security. Effective October 24, 2026, the reduction totals 31 billion British thermal units per day (BBTUD), comprising a 15 BBTUD cut from the Natuna region and a 16 BBTUD cut from the Jambi Merang field in Sumatra.

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