Italian trade surplus and manufacturing pressures

Italy’s trade performance in 2026 has shown growth in surplus values despite fluctuations in export volumes and sector-specific challenges. In July 2026, the national trade surplus reached over 8.2 billion euros, up from 7.8 billion euros in July 2025. This was driven by a 4.7% increase in export value, particularly in non-EU markets, with significant growth in sectors such as refined petroleum products and base metals. For the first seven months of the year, the total trade surplus rose to 32.9 billion euros. By August 2026, provisional data indicated that exports to non-EU countries grew by 16.1% year-on-year. Although monthly exports declined by 2.1% compared to July—attributed largely to the timing of ship deliveries—the annual trend remained strong. The trade surplus for non-EU goods reached 2 billion euros, up from 1.878 billion euros the previous year, though the energy deficit widened to 4.808 billion euros. Notable export growth was recorded toward Switzerland (+57.0%), China (+32.3%), and the United States (+31.1%), while exports to the United Kingdom fell by 2.1%. From January to August, non-EU sales increased by 5.8%, resulting in a cumulative surplus of 33.2 billion euros. Within the footwear sector, the trade balance increased by 9.6% to 2.16 billion euros during the first five months of 2026, despite a 2.4% decline in exports. Assocalzaturifici President Giovanna Ceolini noted that companies are maintaining competitiveness despite “geopolitical tensions, rising costs, and slowing demand.” Broader manufacturing sectors face intensifying economic headwinds. The fashion industry has experienced a 10% turnover decline over the last three years, with revenue falling to approximately 92-93 billion euros. Carlo Capasa, president of the Camera Nazionale della Moda Italiana, attributed this to global conflicts, US-China tensions, and a slowdown in the Chinese market.