Latin American banana supply chain instability

The banana supply chain in Latin America is facing multifaceted threats from environmental, biological, and economic factors. Regional producers, including those in Ecuador, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Colombia, Honduras, Peru, and Mexico, are contending with unpredictable weather patterns linked to the 2026 El Niño phenomenon, which is expected to cause flooding and droughts through February 2027.

Biological threats are also intensifying. Growers are battling Black Sigatoka and the soil-borne Fusarium Tropical Race 4 (TR4). In Ecuador’s Los Ríos province, the spread of Moko disease (Ralstonia solanacearum Raza 2) has reached critical levels, causing plant wilting and death. While the Association of Banana Exporters of Ecuador (AEBE) estimates 3,500 hectares are affected nationwide, local reports suggest the impact may be higher, with some plots losing up to 10 hectares.

These biological issues are compounded by rising production and transportation costs, as well as economic volatility. Small-scale producers, in particular, face risks from currency fluctuations in a market priced in US dollars. Industry advocates note that maintaining resilient supply chains will require long-term commercial commitments and fair pricing to support farm resilience and worker welfare.