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Lunar resource sustainability and scientific potential

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2026-09-25 16:18 UTC → 2026-09-26 21:53 UTC · added ~~removed~~

Research indicates that the sustainability of large-scale lunar settlements may be constrained by limited water resources. A study published in ‘Frontiers in Space Technologies’ by scientists Martin Elvis and Jonathan McDowell suggests that even with a 98% recycling efficiency, a lunar city of one million people could exhaust available water ice reserves in approximately 100 to 120 years. ~~If water reserves are significantly lower than optimistic estimates, this timeline could drop to just a few years, as agricultural needs drive high consumption.~~ Further analysis from the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (CfA) ~~in the study ‘No Cities on the Moon’~~ highlights the severity of these constraints. Lead astrophysicist Martin Elvis noted that if a city of one million people consumes an average of 500 tons of water per person, lunar supplies could be exhausted in only a few years. While advanced recycling systems similar to those used on the International Space Station could extend survival, the research suggests that for a lunar settlement to be truly sustainable over the long term, the population might need to be limited to approximately 1,000 people. Recent findings refine these population-to-sustainability ratios, noting that while a million-person city might exhaust water in less than 2.5 years without high-efficiency recycling, a community of 100,000 could potentially last 1,000 years, and a town of 10,000 could sustain itself for up to 10,000 years. While optimistic estimates once suggested up to one billion metric tons of water could exist, primarily in permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) near the lunar poles, current projections indicate the actual supply might be significantly lower—potentially only one-thirtieth of that amount. At such levels, even small cities could exhaust supplies in roughly a decade. Consequently, researchers suggest near-term development should focus on smaller settlements to ensure resource longevity.

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