[REVISION HISTORY]

Mexico violent crime decline continues amid regional spikes

Updated 69 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-10-20 02:23 UTC → 2026-10-26 21:44 UTC · added ~~removed~~

The downward trajectory in violent crime persisted through mid‑2026, driven by the four‑pillar National Security Strategy. President Claudia Sheinbaum and Marcela Figueroa, head of the Secretariado Ejecutivo del Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública (SESNIP), reported a 51% reduction in the daily average of intentional homicides between September 2024 and July 2026. By August 2026, Sheinbaum reported the daily average had fallen from 86.9 to 40.8 deaths. Despite national declines, regional volatility remains high. ~~Between January and August~~ In September 2026, ~~Guanajuato recorded~~ the ~~highest concentration of intentional homicides (8.5% of the national total), followed by Baja California (8.4%) and Chihuahua (8%). Conversely, Guerrero~~ daily homicide rate was reported at 40, though the fourth week of that month saw a ~~33.44% decrease in daily intentional homicides compared~~ 13.6% weekly increase to ~~2025. In Tamaulipas, historical data also indicates a downward trend in~~ 284 homicides. ~~Security experts~~ While Puebla reported significant decreases in homicides, kidnappings, and ~~opposition leaders have debated these figures. Some suggest the reduction stems from government action~~ extortion, other areas face crises; Coahuila has seen rising feminicides, and the reorganization of criminal groups, such as the Sinaloa Cartel, while others, like Senator Ricardo Anaya, have raised concerns regarding potential statistical manipulation. Furthermore, INEGI’s 2026 ENVIPE survey highlighted a crisis of impunity, noting that approximately 93.4% of crimes were not reported or investigated, with only 1.1% of total crimes reaching a positive resolution. Chihuahua has seen protests from families displaced by organized crime. Social instability continues to drive internal displacement. ~~INEGI data indicates 509,917 households have been~~ INEGI’s 2025 Intercensal Survey reveals that between October 2020 and October 2025, approximately 510,000 households—roughly 1.6 million people—experienced forced ~~to displace~~ displacement due to ~~criminal~~ violence. ~~In Sinaloa, interim governor Graciela Domínguez Nava noted that~~ Zacatecas leads the ~~registry~~ nation in displacement rates, with 2.2% of ~~3,619 displaced families likely underrepresents the crisis. To combat this, 20,000 federal security elements~~ households affected. In Sonora, over 35,000 people have ~~been deployed in Sinaloa, targeting areas like Culiacán~~ moved due to insecurity. President Sheinbaum has requested an INEGI review of measurement methodologies to better distinguish displacement caused by crime from that caused by natural disasters. Security experts and ~~Mazatlán.~~ opposition leaders continue to debate these figures. While Sheinbaum noted a 30% decrease in registered missing persons during her second year, specialists warn this may reflect a reduction in official reports rather than actual incidents. Furthermore, the 2025 Global Organized Crime Index ranked Mexico first globally in criminal markets.

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