Middle East maritime blockades and oil supply disruptions

Following the failure of a peace agreement, the United States initiated a maritime and port blockade of Iranian ports on July 13, 2026. This action has severely curtailed Iranian oil exports and impacted Tehran’s primary source of foreign currency.

The blockade has caused significant disruptions in the Persian Gulf, with no Iranian supertankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz since mid-July. Data indicates that at least 41 million barrels of crude oil and 22 empty tankers have been trapped in the region. Floating stocks of Iranian crude outside the blockade zone have dropped from 105 million to approximately 80 million barrels, with only about 30 million barrels remaining in Asian waters.

These disruptions have created a supply crisis for Chinese ‘teapot’ refineries, which are facing imminent deficits. Chinese imports of Iranian oil fell to 534,000 barrels per day in August, down from a previous average of 1.4 million barrels per day. Consequently, market pricing has shifted; Iranian light crude, which previously traded at a discount, has moved to a premium of up to $3.50 per barrel over ICE Brent. To mitigate these shortages, Chinese buyers are pivoting toward crude from Brazil, Iraq, and Russia.