[REVISION HISTORY]

MLB betting prop and trend analysis (July–Sept 2026)

Updated 31 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-09-20 16:50 UTC → 2026-09-22 17:44 UTC · added ~~removed~~

The weekly betting column continues to issue MLB prop recommendations and trend analysis. Throughout July and early August, focus shifted between pitcher strikeout props, home-run targets like Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber, and same-game parlays. In mid-August, analysis of betting splits revealed a divergence in the Phillies versus Cardinals matchup; while 71% of moneyline bets at DraftKings favored Philadelphia, betting lines remained stagnant, suggesting “sharp money” was moving toward St. Louis. At Circa, the Cardinals received 78% of moneyline bets but accounted for 96% of total moneyline dollars. As the regular season enters its final weeks, analysts are increasingly utilizing advanced metrics—such as barrel rate, exit velocity, and launch angle—to identify value in volatile home run markets. By mid-September, analysis has focused on specific player matchups, DFS rankings, and the No Run First Inning (NRFI) market. Specific NRFI potential has been noted in matchups involving the White Sox, Guardians, Tigers, Blue Jays, Athletics, and Rays. On September 15, AJ Makinen and the VSiN Analytics team utilized betting splits and strength ratings to identify trends for teams including Detroit, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and Washington, specifically highlighting how elite starting pitchers matched against negative bullpen ratings impact ROI. By September 18, player prop targets have included Jo Adell for home runs following a trade to the Guardians, Elly De La Cruz for hits and RBIs, and pitcher Dylan Cease for strikeouts. By September 20, analysts have identified Alex Bregman as a home run prospect due to high ISO and wOBA against right-handed pitchers, alongside longshot plays like Jakob Marsee and Garrett Mitchell. Randy Arozarena has been noted for consistency in hits, runs, and RBIs, particularly at Coors Field. Pitching targets include Dean Kremer and Jacob Misiorowski for strikeouts. ~~As the season progresses, four of the twelve available postseason berths have been secured.~~

Versions

Only revisions since CLSTR began indexing content versions appear here. Select a version to see what changed compared to the one before it.