Nigeria economic stability and growth risks

Nigeria faces various structural and macroeconomic risks that threaten its long-term economic stability and growth goals. Initial concerns center on demographic and human capital challenges, specifically critical gaps in national data and a widespread childhood stunting crisis. Analysts suggest that chronic malnutrition could result in $412 billion in foregone GDP by 2043, as 40% of children under five are currently affected.

Subsequent assessments by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) highlight additional risks for the latter half of 2026. These include persistent insecurity, climate-related disruptions, and political activity surrounding the 2027 general elections. Furthermore, a significant productivity gap has emerged where economic expansion fails to improve living standards, leaving more than half the population potentially below the poverty line despite nominal output growth. External factors, such as global geopolitical shocks and fluctuations in crude oil prices, continue to pose threats to foreign exchange inflows and government revenue.