[REVISION HISTORY]

Nigeria oil output up, refinery expansion and import shifts

Updated 4 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-09-21 00:43 UTC → 2026-09-26 08:03 UTC · added ~~removed~~

Oil output continued to rise through 2026, with OPEC data showing 1.38 mbpd in March and reaching approximately 1.70 mbpd by May-June, exceeding the 1.5 mbpd OPEC quota. Production gains were supported by improved pipeline security and infrastructure maintenance. While imports previously surged, recent data from the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) indicated that by late July, the spot landed cost of imported Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) at N1,223.32 per litre exceeded the Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s gantry price of N1,215 per litre, making locally refined fuel the more cost-effective option. However, the downstream market has faced renewed volatility. By late August, petrol pump prices in Abuja rose following a series of hikes at the Dangote Refinery, where the ex-depot price increased from N1,165 to N1,265 per litre within a single week. Despite the refinery’s capacity, petrol imports reportedly rose by 43.3 percent, prompting calls from economists for the NMDPRA to verify supply gaps before issuing import licenses. Further tensions have emerged as the Dangote Refinery considers restricting sales to major marketers who continue to import petrol. The refinery has alleged that some marketers blend substandard imported fuel with its high-quality products and noted a lack of independent regulatory laboratory infrastructure to verify the quality of imported cargoes. Meanwhile, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) continues to advocate for a ban on fuel imports to protect foreign-exchange reserves and domestic industrialization. By late August 2026, Nigeria’s oil refining sector saw a 43.94% year-on-year growth in the second quarter, driven by the Dangote Refinery increasing its crude distillation capacity to 700,000 barrels per day. Despite this, NNPCL increased Abuja petrol prices to N1,345 per litre. By late September 2026, the domestic fuel landscape showed signs of shifting toward local production.

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